Cycle Analysis
Cycle analysis - Timming the market
A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.
Featured Market Timing Alerts
And now we are about to enter the next big cosmic deal of 2020 in the next two weeks. [...] Historically, multiple planetary stations (retrograde and direct) unfolding in the same week (May 10-14) have a remarkably high correlation to major reversals in many financial markets.
The Gold chart looks like Gold is coming to an inflexion point or apex for a wedge or triangle pattern. Whichever way it breaks out, it should be soon, and should generate a substantial move. Key Dates – 5/5, 5/7, 5/11, 5/22
From the astrological perspective it is doubtful that we have seen the bottom of the market.[...] If history repeats, then May 13th should be a red letter day. That this date is sandwiched exactly between first a Saturn station (9th May 11th) and a Jupiter station (15th) would seem to indicate a particularly volatile week for trading.
[...] my thinking is that the week beginning May 11th will be turbulent to say the least – closing the week to the downside.
The S&P500 chart looes like moves 1 and 2 of 7 in a down Chaos Clamshell. [move 3 is therefore down and could start in May]
The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 9 major crash Lows in the past 19 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low, 1/20/15 Crash Low and more recently the 12/26/18 crash Low. It is next due in May 2020.
Markets WILL be lower in/by August but can be higher (or not) next 30-60 days. ~ 3000 SPX is a year-end target for some analysts (GS says 2400 first) so we are now watching – our original plan was to begin to protect end (not beginning) of May.[...] Unlike last year, I believe it may be too early to sell but rather better to begin towards the end of May, not the beginning, to slowly protect.
SPX surpassed its 2930 projection by 20 points before reversing and plunging 134 points in the next two days. The index closed near its low on Friday, suggesting that the decline is probably not over, especially since the cycle low is ideally due in the middle of next week. This reversal most likely puts an end to the 763-point bear market rally from mid-March and signals the start of the next phase of the downtrend which started from 3393. It is possible that after additional selling into next week, we could rally into about mid-May before the next reversal.
My best target for the final wave of this first crash is 2,080 on the S&P 500 and 6,190 (the December 2018 low) on the Nasdaq. That forms a flat neckline through that late 2018 low. The left shoulder peaked at the September 2018 top around 8,120. The rebound I am forecasting from a lower low just ahead would peak between around July, and at the latest the election again, at around 8,120 – I am assuming mid-September 2020.
Main Characteristics of Cycles
Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing.
Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility.
Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator.
Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.
Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.
Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.
Cycle Analysis Educational Reports
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1650
EUR/USD remains slightly on the back foot on Friday, trading around 1.1650 amid some modest recovery in the US Dollar. Investors, in the meantime, are expected to shift their attention to next week's US inflation data release. Fed officials' comments and trade news also remain in focus.
GBP/USD turns positive near 1.3450
GBP/USD now flirts with the 1.3450 zone, managing to bounce off daily lows as the Greenback’s advance loses some traction. The British Pound remains bolstered by the BoE's hawkish cut at its meeting on Thursday. Cable remains en route to close the week with marked gains.
Gold keeps the rangebound mood near $3,400
Gold seems to have entered a consolidation phase around $3,400 per troy ounce, giving up some gains after previous highs over $3,410. The announcement that the United States would tax one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars is also supportive of the precious metal.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin uptrend takes a breather as Ethereum, XRP bulls tighten grip
The cryptocurrency market is relatively bullish on Friday, buoyed by renewed risk-on sentiment from both institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin surged toward the $118,000 round-figure resistance before retreating slightly to trade at around $116,525 at the time of writing.
Bank of England cuts rates in dramatic meeting
The Bank of England has cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 4% but the statement hints that officials think the easing cycle is nearing its end. Policymakers are visibly worried about a more persistent bout of inflation as the headline number is way higher than target.