Cycle Analysis
Cycle analysis - Timming the market
A cycle is a recognizable price pattern or movement that occurs with some degree of regularity in a specific time period. The analysis of cycles shows us support and resistance that represent smart places to anticipate a reaction in the price of an asset, and therefore represent a basic tool in technical analysis. Cycle lengths are measured from trough to trough, the most stable portion of a cycle. The information you find on this page is useful to combine with Elliott wave analysis. It's also a valuable tool to understand what is happening in the different asset classes: bonds, equities, commodities and the U.S. dollar.
Featured Market Timing Alerts
And now we are about to enter the next big cosmic deal of 2020 in the next two weeks. [...] Historically, multiple planetary stations (retrograde and direct) unfolding in the same week (May 10-14) have a remarkably high correlation to major reversals in many financial markets.
The Gold chart looks like Gold is coming to an inflexion point or apex for a wedge or triangle pattern. Whichever way it breaks out, it should be soon, and should generate a substantial move. Key Dates – 5/5, 5/7, 5/11, 5/22
From the astrological perspective it is doubtful that we have seen the bottom of the market.[...] If history repeats, then May 13th should be a red letter day. That this date is sandwiched exactly between first a Saturn station (9th May 11th) and a Jupiter station (15th) would seem to indicate a particularly volatile week for trading.
[...] my thinking is that the week beginning May 11th will be turbulent to say the least – closing the week to the downside.
The S&P500 chart looes like moves 1 and 2 of 7 in a down Chaos Clamshell. [move 3 is therefore down and could start in May]
The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 9 major crash Lows in the past 19 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low, 1/20/15 Crash Low and more recently the 12/26/18 crash Low. It is next due in May 2020.
Markets WILL be lower in/by August but can be higher (or not) next 30-60 days. ~ 3000 SPX is a year-end target for some analysts (GS says 2400 first) so we are now watching – our original plan was to begin to protect end (not beginning) of May.[...] Unlike last year, I believe it may be too early to sell but rather better to begin towards the end of May, not the beginning, to slowly protect.
SPX surpassed its 2930 projection by 20 points before reversing and plunging 134 points in the next two days. The index closed near its low on Friday, suggesting that the decline is probably not over, especially since the cycle low is ideally due in the middle of next week. This reversal most likely puts an end to the 763-point bear market rally from mid-March and signals the start of the next phase of the downtrend which started from 3393. It is possible that after additional selling into next week, we could rally into about mid-May before the next reversal.
My best target for the final wave of this first crash is 2,080 on the S&P 500 and 6,190 (the December 2018 low) on the Nasdaq. That forms a flat neckline through that late 2018 low. The left shoulder peaked at the September 2018 top around 8,120. The rebound I am forecasting from a lower low just ahead would peak between around July, and at the latest the election again, at around 8,120 – I am assuming mid-September 2020.
Main Characteristics of Cycles
Amplitude: it's the distance from the horizontal axis to the extreme peak or trough (it's called the “power” of the cycle). Normally the amplitude is a function of its duration- the longer the cycle, the larger the swing.
Expressed in dollars, pips, or points, it's related to volatility.
Power of amplitude can be influenced greatly by exogenous, unpredictable events some of them anticipated in FXStreet's Sentiment Aggregator.
Because amplitude is considered a projection problem, the most reliable projections are made strictly on periodicity and phase.
Period: it's the distance between troughs. While the amplitude appears to change quickly at times, the period appears to change more slowly. The period often remains relatively constant and is an estimate based on immediate past price history.
Phase: its used to identify the last cycle low and determine how far from the y-axis the particular cycles begins, it thus determines the offset between two cycles of different phases. It measures the time location of a wave trough and allows for the study of the relationship between different cycle lengths. Being the relationship of the starting points of different cycles, if for example, one cycle has the same period as another but its peaks and valleys are exactly opposite, it's 180º out of phase). If two cycles are identical in phase, they are coincident.
Cycle Analysis Educational Reports
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1750 as risk flows dominate
EUR/USD stays firm above 1.1760 in European trading hours on Wednesday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment, which dents the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal. Confidence returned on headlines indicating the United States and Iran are moving towards a deal to end the conflict. The deal would involve both sides lifting restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
USD/JPY off lows, still down 1% on likely 'Yentervention'
USD/JPY is off ten-week lows but remains heavy near 156.00 in early Europe on Wednesday. Markets speculate another round of FX intervention by Japan's authorities behind the latest leg up in the Japanese Yen, keeping the bearish pressure intact on the currency pair.
Gold continues scaling higher; retakes $4,700 amid peace deal hopes
Gold extends its intraday ascent and climbs to an over one-week high, re-attempting $4,700 in Wednesday's European session. The US Dollar weakens across the board amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, helping the commodity to build on its recovery from a more than one-month trough, around the $4,500 mark set on Monday.
ADP Employment Report set to show US job market gained momentum in April
Developments in the Middle East conflict are likely to remain at the forefront this week, but investors will also keep an eye on a string of US labour market figures.
UK 30-year gilts hit 5.78%, the highest since 1998: what is being priced in? Premium
UK 30-year gilts traded as high as 5.78% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1998, while 10-year yields topped 5.10% with markets pricing in nearly three-quarter-point Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes this year.