EUR/USD Forecast and News
Euro clings to the bid bias above 1.1500
EUR/USD has picked up pace, reversing Monday’s decline and advancing past the 1.1500 barrier on Tuesday. In the meantime, hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East crisis keep the US Dollar under modest downside pressure, helping spot in its recovery.
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The Middle East conflict is in a standstill with the US and Iran holding fire so far, but sending contradictory messages. US President Donald Trump urged Tehran to sign a peace deal with the US and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, in turn, have denied any contacts with the US and reiterated their threat to the US Navy if the blockade of Iranian ports continues.
US employment figures in focus
Apart from that, the US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders figures will provide some distraction from the geopolitical scenario and set the tone for a string of key US labour reports due later in the week. The main focus this week will be the Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Friday, which is expected to provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s near-term monetary policy.
According to TD Securities, the recent strength in US labour demand is unlikely to persist. The bank expects that "June JOLTS job openings will decline back down to 7,000k from 7,594k in May (cons: 7,504k)," arguing that "the recent surge in openings is likely unsustainable."
Regarding the pair's near-term, outlook, FX analuysts at Rabobank warn that “the market continues to display a reluctance to rebuild EUR positions towards last year’s longs given uncertainty about how higher energy prices will impact the growth and inflation outlook in the Eurozone.” Against this backdrop, the bank foreseees "choppy ranges, mostly within the EUR/USD1.14/1.15 level likely to persist in the coming months,” as investors remain cautious about committing to fresh Euro exposure.
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EUR/USD: US Dollar in trouble as Warsh chickens out
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USD/JPY holds steady above mid-157.00s; moves little after BoJ Minutes
USD/JPY preserves the overnight gains following the release of BoJ Minutes on Wednesday, though it remains below the 158.00 mark through the Asian session. As investors digest a joint US-Japan intervention, worries about Japan's strained fiscal condition undermine the Japanese Yen amid the wide BoJ-Fed rate gap. However, optimism over a US-Iran peace deal, along with receding Fed-hike bets, keeps US Dollar bulls on the back foot and caps the currency pair.
AUD/USD sits near mid-0.7000s, highest since June 17 as Iran deal hopes undermine USD
AUD/USD trades around mid-0.7000s during the Asian session on Wednesday, near its highest level since June 17, with bulls awaiting a breakout through the 100-day SMA before positioning for further gains. Crude oil prices hang near a four-week low amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This helps ease inflation fears and temper Fed rate hike bets, keeping US Dollar bulls on the defensive and supporting the currency pair.
Gold keeps the range despite fresh optimism
Gold extends Monday’s optimism and approaches the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s recovery remains on a positive footing as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace efforts and the Fed’s policy outlook keeps traders prudent.
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Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
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About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).