EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD turns positive near 1.1500
EUR/USD now manages to regain some balance and bounces off lows amid modest gains, approaching at the same time the key 1.1500 barrier as the trading week draws to a close. The pair’s late rebound follows some loss of momentum in the US Dollar. Next week, the Trump-Xi Summit is expected to take centre stage alongside tariffs.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
In the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger middle band. Price is hovering just above the lower Bollinger band, underscoring downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 38 hints at weak but not yet oversold momentum that could still allow further slippage before a more meaningful corrective bounce.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the lower Bollinger band at 1.1475. A breach of the latter could expose the July 13 low of 1.1377, followed by the June 24 low of 1.1324.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day moving average at 1.1550. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is the Bollinger middle band around 1.1595. A sustained recovery above these levels would be needed to ease the current bearish bias before the upper Bollinger band near 1.1712 comes into play.
Fundamental Overview
The Fed decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%. This is the first time the Fed has raised rates since July 2023 as the central bank continues to fight to tamp down inflation.
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) also lifted its key deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% from 2.25% in a move widely expected by investors. The ECB will wait until December before delivering a final interest-rate increase to quell inflation triggered by conflict in the Middle East, according to Bloomberg economists.
Respondents in a Bloomberg survey anticipate the Governing Council to hike the deposit rate to 2.75% at its last meeting of the year, skipping the next opportunity to do so in late October.
Eurozone inflation steadies as ECB hawkish tone keeps October hike in play
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the latest euro area inflation data did little to shift the policy narrative, with the “final euro area CPI release” offering “little in terms of surprise.” They highlight that “headline inflation [is] remaining in the low 3% area and core hovering in the mid-2% range,” levels that continue to justify a firm policy stance from the ECB. In their view, “messaging from the ECB remains hawkish,” and this is reflected in market pricing, where investors now see “just over 50% chance of a hike in October with a cumulative 36bpts of tightening by December.”
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
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Majors
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Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
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About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).