EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD bounces off lows, back to 1.1560
EUR/USD manages to pick up some pace and rebounds from earlier lows, revisiting the 1.1560 region on Friday, giving back part of Thursday’s ECB-driven rally. Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades with marked gains, supported by a cautious tone across global markets and persistent geopolitical tensions.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
In the 4-hours chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1576. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1522 and the 50-period SMA near 1.1528, while remaining below the declining 100- and 200-period SMAs around 1.1600 and 1.1715, respectively. This alignment suggests a recovery phase within a broader downside context, with the recent push away from the lower Bollinger Band toward the mid-band reinforcing improving momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.7 stays above the 50 line, signaling steady bullish pressure without overbought conditions.
Immediate support is seen at 1.1530 (static level), reinforced by the nearby 20- and 50-period SMA, with a deeper floor at 1.1500 (round level) ahead of 1.1460 (static level) if sellers regain control. On the upside, initial resistance comes at 1.1600 (100-period SMA, upper line of the Bollinger Band) ahead of the horizontal barrier near 1.1670 and the 200-period SMA at 1.1715.
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1550 after posting impressive gains on Thursday. Comments from policymakers could impact the pair's action in the near term.
Following Wednesday's sharp decline, EUR/USD reversed its direction on Thursday and gained more than 1% on the day, supported by the European Central Bank's relatively hawkish guidance.
The ECB left policy settings unchanged, as anticipated, after the March meeting. "The war in the Middle East has made outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth," the ECB noted in its policy statement.
In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that a prolonged war could increase energy prices for longer and erode incomes. Lagarde further added that risks to inflation are tilted to the upside in the near term and said that they could have a "temporary, targeted and tailored" response to the energy shock.
Early Friday, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel argued that the ECB would need to raise rates in April if the price outlook sours. On a more neutral note, policymaker José Luis Escrivá said that the situation is highly uncertain and volatile, adding that they must continues to assess a wealth of information before taking a policy step.
The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Friday. Hence, investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from policymakers.
In case ECB officials voice their willingness to consider policy-tightening in response to rising inflation, the Euro could preserve its strength.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
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Majors
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Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).