EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1650
EUR/USD remains slightly on the back foot on Friday, trading around 1.1650 amid some modest recovery in the US Dollar. Investors, in the meantime, are expected to shift their attention to next week's US inflation data release. Fed officials' comments and trade news also remain in focus.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
EUR/USD failed to stabilize above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated below 60, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.
On the downside, 1.1620 (100-period SMA) aligns as the first support level before 1.1540-1.1550 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend, 50-period SMA) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1650-1.1660 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 200-period SMA), 1.1700 (static level, round level) and 1.1760 (static level).
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand on Thursday but EUR/USD found it difficult to gather bullish momentum. The sharp decline seen in the EUR/GBP cross, following the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to cut the policy rate by a slim majority, showed that Pound Sterling captured capital outflows out of the Euro. Early Friday, EUR/GBP continues to stretch lower and loses about 0.3% on the day after falling 0.6% on Thursday, not allowing the Euro to gather strength.
The US economic calendar will not offer any macroeconomic data releases that could drive the USD's valuation heading into the weekend. Hence, investors could pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials and the risk perception.
At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.2% and 0.3% on the day. A bullish action in Wall Street after the opening bell could limit the USD's gains and help EUR/USD find support. On the flip side, the pair could stay on the back foot in case markets adopt a cautious stance in the second half of the day.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Between Fed speculation and tariff uncertainty Premium
The Euro (EUR) successfully recovered from its previous week's losses against the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, EUR/USD traded with an upside bias throughout the week, briefly flirting with the key resistance in the 1.1700 region just to ease some ground as the week drew to an end.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1650
EUR/USD remains slightly on the back foot on Friday, trading around 1.1650 amid some modest recovery in the US Dollar. Investors, in the meantime, are expected to shift their attention to next week's US inflation data release. Fed officials' comments and trade news also remain in focus.
GBP/USD turns positive near 1.3450
GBP/USD now flirts with the 1.3450 zone, managing to bounce off daily lows as the Greenback’s advance loses some traction. The British Pound remains bolstered by the BoE's hawkish cut at its meeting on Thursday. Cable remains en route to close the week with marked gains.
Gold keeps the rangebound mood near $3,400
Gold seems to have entered a consolidation phase around $3,400 per troy ounce, giving up some gains after previous highs over $3,410. The announcement that the United States would tax one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars is also supportive of the precious metal.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin uptrend takes a breather as Ethereum, XRP bulls tighten grip
The cryptocurrency market is relatively bullish on Friday, buoyed by renewed risk-on sentiment from both institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin surged toward the $118,000 round-figure resistance before retreating slightly to trade at around $116,525 at the time of writing.
Bank of England cuts rates in dramatic meeting
The Bank of England has cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 4% but the statement hints that officials think the easing cycle is nearing its end. Policymakers are visibly worried about a more persistent bout of inflation as the headline number is way higher than target.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).