EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD clings to gains around 1.1200; focus is on US Midterms
EUR/USD looks to consolidate its daily gains, navigating around the 1.1200 region on Tuesday. The pair’s marginal advance comes on the back of the equally humble gains in the US Dollar, as investors remain cautious ahead of the US Midterm elections, with results expected to start emerging early on Wednesday in Europe.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
Against the backdrop of a decline from the August monthly swing high, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past month or so could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, keeping a near-term negative tone.
That said, a convincing break below the trading range support, near the 1.1100 round figure, is needed to reaffirm the bearish outlook and set the stage for deeper losses. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 200-period SMA at 1.1267. Bulls would need to reclaim the said barrier to alleviate downside pressure and open the door to a more constructive bias.
Fundamental Overview
Prediction markets strongly favor Democrats winning the House, and a Republican sweep would be a larger market surprise, which could lift US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, the election results may infuse some short-term volatility and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. In the meantime, Monday's better-than-expected US macro data, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, seems to act as a tailwind for the buck.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI rose from 54.5 in the previous month to 55.5 in October 2026, marking the 10th straight month of expansion. Furthermore, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are pricing in over a 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD, though hopes for Iran diplomacy might cap gains and support the EUR/USD pair.
In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran wants to make a deal to end the war and that such an agreement could happen. Adding to this, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that consultations through mediators were very intensive. However, several days of negotiations between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators failed to make a major breakthrough despite revised proposals, which keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play.
This might hold back trades from placing aggressive bearish bets on the USD, which, along with concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock, should contribute to capping the EUR/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of US JOLTS Job Openings for some impetus ahead of the flash Eurozone CPI report and the US ISM Services PMI on Wednesday. The focus, however, will remain on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US President Donald Trump judgment day has come
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EUR/USD clings to gains around 1.1200; focus is on US Midterms
EUR/USD looks to consolidate its daily gains, navigating around the 1.1200 region on Tuesday. The pair’s marginal advance comes on the back of the equally humble gains in the US Dollar, as investors remain cautious ahead of the US Midterm elections, with results expected to start emerging early on Wednesday in Europe.
GBP/USD extends the upside momentum past 1.3400
GBP/USD adds to its ongoing multi-day positive streak, managing to reclaim the area beyond 1.3400 the figure on turnaround Tuesday. Indeed, Cable’s continuation of the uptrend follows the Greenback’s inconclusive price action as the US Midterm elections are under way, while bets for a rate hike by the BoE on Thursday also underpins the upbeat tone.
AUD/USD weakens to two-week lows near 0.6960
AUD/USD clinches its second consecutive daily pullback as market participants continue to assess the RBA’s rate hike earlier in the day. Indeed, the pair slipped back toward the 0.6960 zone, or multi-day troughs, following the less-hawkish-than-expected message from the RBA after it hiked the OCR by 25 bps, as widely anticipated.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP under pressure as investors pull capital
Bitcoin trades downward at $76,566 on Tuesday, testing six-week lows. Ethereum, like Bitcoin, trades under pressure as it consolidates within a narrow support range. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers marginally above $1.25.
US Dollar Index edges up within range with midterm elections front and centre
The US Dollar Index is picking up from session lows but remains within previous ranges, below 102.00. The Greenback is drawing support from hostilities in Iran and higher Oil prices, but US political uncertainty is capping gains.
Majors
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Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).