USD/CAD Forecast and News


Canadian Dollar declines as US-Canada trade talks collapse

The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3820 during the early European session. The Canadian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar after US-Canada talks collapse into a trade war. CNBC reported that Washington imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products on Saturday after trade talks between the two countries fell apart on Friday. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the country would impose its own retaliatory tariffs beginning on September 8.

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AUD/USD consolidates gains just above 0.7000

AUD/USD consolidates gains just above 0.7000

AUD/USD rebounds sharply and manages to reclaim the area beyond the 0.7000 threshold on Wednesday. Indeed, the pair sets aside two daily drops in a row and regains balance on the back of the marked pullback in the Greenback as investors keep assessing the results from the US Midterms elections.

EUR/USD: The 1.1200 region holds the downside

EUR/USD: The 1.1200 region holds the downside

EUR/USD could not sustain the earlier bull run to the 1.1270 region, returning to the low-1.1200s amid decent gains ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Thursday. The extra weakness in the US Dollar lent further support to the pair’s recovery as market participants continue to parse the Democrats’ win at the US Midterm elections. Moving forward, the weekly US jobs report is due on Thursday ahead of the speech by the ECB’s Largarde.

Gold pops to four-day highs near $4,050

Gold pops to four-day highs near $4,050

Gold manages to regain some composure, leaving behind two consecutive daily pullbacks and reclaiming the area above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The strong decline in the US Dollar, shrinking US Treasury yields across the curve and lower crude oil price all contributes to the yellow metal’s recovery.

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC tops $80K, XAU reclaims $4,000 as Democrats take control of Congress

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC tops $80K, XAU reclaims $4,000 as Democrats take control of Congress

Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD) are gaining momentum on Wednesday, as bulls stage a comeback. BTC’s position above $80,000 signals a bullish turnaround, erasing sharp losses from the Binance hack, which impacted $6.3 billion. Meanwhile, Gold’s recovery above $4,000 could strengthen bullish sentiment after the United States (US) midterm elections.
US midterms 2026: Investor Q&A on the Democratic sweep

US midterms 2026: Investor Q&A on the Democratic sweep

1. Gridlock replaces the stimulus narrative. A Democratic Congress would constrain Trump's ability to pursue additional fiscal expansion and legislative tax measures. But it cannot simply reverse the president's entire economic agenda. Executive powers, existing legislation and presidential vetoes remain important. 2. AI faces a higher hurdle, not an extinction event.

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INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PEOPLE FOR THE USD/CAD


Bank of Canada (BoC)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is the nation's central bank. Its principal role, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is "to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada." The bank's responsibilities are divided into four main areas:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.


Kevin Warsh

Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

Tiff Macklem

Tiff Macklem was born in Montreal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada effective June 3, 2020, for a seven-year term. He graduated from Queen's University with a bachelor's degree in economics and completed a master's degree and a PhD in economics, both from the University of Western Ontario.

Before becoming Governor, Macklem served as a director of the Bank of Nova Scotia and chair of its risk committee. He is chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and co-chair of the Financial Stability Board's Regional Consultative Group for the Americas.

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About USD/CAD

The USD/CAD represents how many Canadian Dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one US Dollar (the base currency). The nickname “Loonie” originates from the Gold-colored Canadian one-dollar coin introduced in 1987 and produced by the Royal Canadian Mint in Winnipeg.
The coin reverse features a common loon, a bird found throughout Canada, while the obverse displays the portrait of Queen Elizabeth II, the nation's former head of state.

THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE ‘LOONIE’

The USD/CAD is one of the three "commodity pairs", alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. These pairs are closely tied to commodity price fluctuations, particularly Oil.

Canada, known as a resource-based economy, is a major producer and supplier of Oil. Its leading export market is the United States, making the Canadian dollar (CAD) particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economic health.

Rising Oil prices typically have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD.

ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: As previously mentioned, Oil is the primary focus, but traders should also consider Gold and Natural Gas.

  • Currencies: The Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR). Another important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD.
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bonds) and T-Note 10Y (10-year US Treasury note).