USD/CAD Forecast and News


Canadian Dollar declines as US-Canada trade talks collapse

The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3820 during the early European session. The Canadian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar after US-Canada talks collapse into a trade war. CNBC reported that Washington imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products on Saturday after trade talks between the two countries fell apart on Friday. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the country would impose its own retaliatory tariffs beginning on September 8.

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Editors' picks

US Dollar surges post-Fed, uncertainty remains

US Dollar surges post-Fed, uncertainty remains

The EUR/USD pair closed the week below 1.1500, not far above a fresh multi-week low of 1.1454. The US Dollar (USD) rallied following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, the sole market catalyst this past week.
Gold: Bulls regain control; the next leg higher remains uncertain

Gold: Bulls regain control; the next leg higher remains uncertain

The precious metal started the week in quite a bearish mood, further extending the almost uninterrupted leg lower after August tops near the $4,700 mark per troy ounce. However, market sentiment made a U-turn in the second half of the week. It was not the Federal Reserve (Fed), reignited geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar (USD) or Treasury yields.
BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.
Bitcoin: BTC shrugs off CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed

Bitcoin: BTC shrugs off CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has remained resilient this week, trading above $78,000 at the time of writing on Friday, heading toward a key resistance zone. Institutional demand shows early signs of weakness, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track for a second straight week of outflows, with over $420 million recorded through Thursday amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Forecasting the upcoming week: Trump, Xi, oil, tariffs and PMIs

Forecasting the upcoming week: Trump, Xi, oil, tariffs and PMIs

A very positive week saw the US Dollar (USD) climb to new seven-week tops, mostly backed by the hawkish tilt at the FOMC event on Wednesday while unabated strength in Crude Oil prices have also underpinned the move during the first half of the week.

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INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PEOPLE FOR THE USD/CAD


Bank of Canada (BoC)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is the nation's central bank. Its principal role, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is "to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada." The bank's responsibilities are divided into four main areas:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.


Kevin Warsh

Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

Tiff Macklem

Tiff Macklem was born in Montreal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada effective June 3, 2020, for a seven-year term. He graduated from Queen's University with a bachelor's degree in economics and completed a master's degree and a PhD in economics, both from the University of Western Ontario.

Before becoming Governor, Macklem served as a director of the Bank of Nova Scotia and chair of its risk committee. He is chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and co-chair of the Financial Stability Board's Regional Consultative Group for the Americas.

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About USD/CAD

The USD/CAD represents how many Canadian Dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one US Dollar (the base currency). The nickname “Loonie” originates from the Gold-colored Canadian one-dollar coin introduced in 1987 and produced by the Royal Canadian Mint in Winnipeg.
The coin reverse features a common loon, a bird found throughout Canada, while the obverse displays the portrait of Queen Elizabeth II, the nation's former head of state.

THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE ‘LOONIE’

The USD/CAD is one of the three "commodity pairs", alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. These pairs are closely tied to commodity price fluctuations, particularly Oil.

Canada, known as a resource-based economy, is a major producer and supplier of Oil. Its leading export market is the United States, making the Canadian dollar (CAD) particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economic health.

Rising Oil prices typically have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD.

ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: As previously mentioned, Oil is the primary focus, but traders should also consider Gold and Natural Gas.

  • Currencies: The Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR). Another important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD.
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bonds) and T-Note 10Y (10-year US Treasury note).