FOMC Interest rate decision (Fed) | News & Analysis

Thanks for your service, Mr. Chair Powell Premium

Powell’s departure is probably the most troublesome end of a Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, despite being the most resolute leader a central bank could have. Indeed, Powell could be labeled as conservative.

Fed's Hammack: Uncertainty around economy, policy path has risen

In a statement published on Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack explained her decision to dissent against the Fed keeping an easing bias in the policy statement.

Fed's Kashkari: Large enough price shock could require series of rate hikes

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari explained on Friday that he dissented at the April policy meeting because the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz means the Fed should acknowledge the risk of rate hikes in its statement.

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EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1750 as risk flows dominate

EUR/USD stays firm above 1.1760 in European trading hours on Wednesday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment, which dents the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal. Confidence returned on headlines indicating the United States and Iran are moving towards a deal to end the conflict. The deal would involve both sides lifting restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

USD/JPY off lows, still down 1% on likely 'Yentervention'

USD/JPY is off ten-week lows but remains heavy near 156.00 in early Europe on Wednesday. Markets speculate another round of FX intervention by Japan's authorities behind the latest leg up in the Japanese Yen, keeping the bearish pressure intact on the currency pair.

UK 30-year gilts hit 5.78%, the highest since 1998: what is being priced in? Premium

UK 30-year gilts traded as high as 5.78% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1998, while 10-year yields topped 5.10% with markets pricing in nearly three-quarter-point Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes this year.

Gold continues scaling higher; retakes $4,700 amid peace deal hopes

Gold extends its intraday ascent and climbs to an over one-week high, re-attempting $4,700 in Wednesday's European session. The US Dollar weakens across the board amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, helping the commodity to build on its recovery from a more than one-month trough, around the $4,500 mark set on Monday.

ADP Employment Report set to show US job market gained momentum in April

Developments in the Middle East conflict are likely to remain at the forefront this week, but investors will also keep an eye on a string of US labour market figures.

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What's important about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting?

With a pre-set regularity, a nation's central bank holds a monetary policy meeting where board members take different measures, the most relevant one setting the range of the federal funds rate, which greatly influences the interest rate charge on loans and advances to commercial banks.

In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets at intervals of five to eight weeks to announce their latest decisions. An interest-rate hike increases borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors. A rate cut, on the other hand, tends to weaken the USD.

If rates remain unchanged, the attention, main news and analysis turn to the tone of the monetary policy statement and the press conference from the Fed’s Chair. Markets analyze whether the tone is hawkish or dovish over future developments of inflation.

What is the Fed?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.

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How to trade the event?

Do not rely on the Fed to determine the direction of the dollar in the coming months.
The dollar tends to follow its predominant trend when the Fed starts to hike rates.
There is no direct link between the Fed hiking rates and the usd falling. When a weak usd has coincided with a Fed hiking cycle, it has been falling for some time.
Due to this, we may see a muted reaction to a potential Fed rate hike.

WHO IS FOMC'S CHAIRMAN?

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

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The World Interest Rates Table

The World Interest Rates Table reflects the current interest rates of the main countries around the world, set by their respective Central Banks. Rates typically reflect the health of individual economies, as in a perfect scenario, Central Banks tend to rise rates when the economy is growing and therefore instigate inflation.