GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier
The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
GBP/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.3423, but is holding above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3389 and retaining a mildly bullish near-term bias. The pair has reclaimed short-term trend support, while the downward resistance trend line, with a key break reference at 1.3473, now caps the topside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 54 leans constructive without signaling overbought conditions, suggesting scope for further gains while acknowledging nearby overhead supply.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the trend-line break area near 1.3473, ahead of the psychological level at 13500. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 1.3389, which should act as a cushion on pullbacks; a daily close back below this level would weaken the current bullish tone and expose it to the July 28 low at 1.3274.
Fundamental Overview
Pound struggles for support as BoE hawkish split meets dovish Bailey tone
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that “GBP net shorts bounced higher last week ahead of the BoE policy meeting,” underscoring renewed speculative pressure on the Pound. They note that, “despite a more hawkish voting split than the market had expected from the MPC, Governor Bailey’s tone was dovish,” which in their view “suggest[ed] little support for the pound from the BoE.” This combination of positioning and communication leaves Sterling lacking clear policy backing despite the ostensibly firmer stance implied by the vote split.
In BoE Bailey’s last week's press conference, he said, “Please do not leave this room thinking that the Bank of England is edging towards a hike, because frankly, there’s nothing in what I said, and I think any of us have said, along those lines,” Reuters reported.
The selling pressure in the GBP/USD pair is also driven by the higher US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.05. The USD Index recovered sharply on Monday after posting a fresh two-week high at 99.42.
The Greenback extends Monday’s recovery further as investors turn cautious ahead of key United States (US) economic releases.
Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July on Friday to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Fed’s new policy “say no to so-called forward-guidance” has increased investors’ dependency on economic releases to project the Fed’s next policy move.
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The data is expected to arrive at 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
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Editors' picks
USD/JPY holds steady above mid-157.00s; moves little after BoJ Minutes
USD/JPY preserves the overnight gains following the release of BoJ Minutes on Wednesday, though it remains below the 158.00 mark through the Asian session. As investors digest a joint US-Japan intervention, worries about Japan's strained fiscal condition undermine the Japanese Yen amid the wide BoJ-Fed rate gap. However, optimism over a US-Iran peace deal, along with receding Fed-hike bets, keeps US Dollar bulls on the back foot and caps the currency pair.
AUD/USD sits near mid-0.7000s, highest since June 17 as Iran deal hopes undermine USD
AUD/USD trades around mid-0.7000s during the Asian session on Wednesday, near its highest level since June 17, with bulls awaiting a breakout through the 100-day SMA before positioning for further gains. Crude oil prices hang near a four-week low amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This helps ease inflation fears and temper Fed rate hike bets, keeping US Dollar bulls on the defensive and supporting the currency pair.
Gold keeps the range despite fresh optimism
Gold extends Monday’s optimism and approaches the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s recovery remains on a positive footing as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace efforts and the Fed’s policy outlook keeps traders prudent.
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Majors
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Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).