GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD: Upside appears capped by 1.3500 for now
GBP/USD stays on the positive footing, although it now gives away some ground following two-month tops around 1.3500 on Wednesday. Cable’s continuation of the multi-day uptrend comes on the back of extra selling pressure hurting the Greenback, while expectations of a rate hike by the BoE on Thursday also adds to the uptick.
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GBP/USD Technical Overview
In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle SMA, which together suggest a supported near-term tone after the recent recovery off the lower band. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 57.9 leans constructive without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that bullish momentum is still developing while price approaches the upper edge of the recent volatility envelope.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges at the upper boundary of Bollinger band near 1.3465, en route to the July 15 high of 1.3558. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is the August 21 high of 1.3675.
On the downside, immediate support level is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3385, followed by the Bollinger middle band around 1.3320 and then the October 15 low of 1.3184. Any follow-through selling below this level could expose the recent Bollinger lower band low near 1.3172.
Fundamental Overview
The BoE is expected to raise the Bank Rate to 4.0% from 3.75% at its November policy meeting on Thursday. This would be its first hike since August 2023, when inflation was still more than the BoE’s 2% target. ING analysts said that after Thursday's expected rate hike, a follow-up hike from the BoE in February is also likely, but said that market pricing for BoE rate hikes "looks extreme.”
Traders will closely monitor the press conference for more clues about the UK interest rate outlook. If BoE Governor Andrew Bailey delivers hawkish remarks, this could boost the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.
BoE seen kicking off tightening cycle but guidance may cap Pound gains
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that attention will focus on the Bank of England’s policy decision and Monetary Policy Report on Thursday, with the BoE “widely expected to start tightening with a 25bps hike to 4.00% after standing pat all year.” They point out that “firmer UK inflation and economic activity back the move,” while the vote split is anticipated at “7-2 with doves Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra supporting a hold.”
BBH adds that “BoE guidance and the updated MPR will test market expectations for 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months,” warning that “persistent spare capacity across the forecast horizon would strengthen the case for pricing out hikes and limit GBP upside.”
Greene flags stalled wage disinflation, keeping BoE hawkish bias intact
BoE's Greene scores 7.4/10 on FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with the historic average, signaling a steady but firmly hawkish stance. Emphasis that wage disinflation has stalled at levels above those consistent with 2% inflation, alongside forward-looking pay growth near 3.5% and a surprisingly resilient economy, reinforces concern that second-round inflation effects remain a material risk.
Greene’s call to proactively lean against these second-round effects, and the view that such risks are now greater than previously thought, points to a reluctance to endorse rapid policy easing. The suggestion that labor market slack may have peaked supports the idea that underlying wage pressures could persist, a configuration that is typically supportive of the Pound as markets price a more persistent BoE tightening bias.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
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AUD/USD consolidates gains just above 0.7000
AUD/USD rebounds sharply and manages to reclaim the area beyond the 0.7000 threshold on Wednesday. Indeed, the pair sets aside two daily drops in a row and regains balance on the back of the marked pullback in the Greenback as investors keep assessing the results from the US Midterms elections.
EUR/USD: The 1.1200 region holds the downside
EUR/USD could not sustain the earlier bull run to the 1.1270 region, returning to the low-1.1200s amid decent gains ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Thursday. The extra weakness in the US Dollar lent further support to the pair’s recovery as market participants continue to parse the Democrats’ win at the US Midterm elections. Moving forward, the weekly US jobs report is due on Thursday ahead of the speech by the ECB’s Largarde.
Gold pops to four-day highs near $4,050
Gold manages to regain some composure, leaving behind two consecutive daily pullbacks and reclaiming the area above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The strong decline in the US Dollar, shrinking US Treasury yields across the curve and lower crude oil price all contributes to the yellow metal’s recovery.
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Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
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About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).