GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD turns positive near 1.3450
GBP/USD now flirts with the 1.3450 zone, managing to bounce off daily lows as the Greenback’s advance loses some traction. The British Pound remains bolstered by the BoE's hawkish cut at its meeting on Thursday. Cable remains en route to close the week with marked gains.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
GBP/USD broke above the upper limit of the descending regression channel and cleared the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 70, suggesting that the pair remains technically overbought and could edge lower before the next leg higher.
On the downside, 1.3385-1.3400 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the downtrend) could be seen as the first support area before 1.3310-1.3290 (50-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Looking north, the immediate resistance could be spotted at 1.3460 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) ahead of 1.3500 (200-period SMA, round level) and 1.3530 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Fundamental Overview
Pound Sterling gathered strength against its rivals on Thursday after the Bank of England announced that it decided to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) by a slim 5-4 majority following a second round of voting. Markets were expecting only two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote for a policy hold.
In the post-meeting press conference, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that it is important that they do not cut the policy rate too quickly or too much, further supporting Pound Sterling.
Reflecting the broad-based GBP strength, EUR/GBP fell 0.6%, while GBP/JPY rose 0.5% on Thursday.
The economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases on Friday. Profit-taking toward the end of the European session could cause GBP/USD to correct lower. On a weekly basis, the pair is up more than 1%.
Nevertheless, in case risk flows dominate the action in financial markets in the American session, the US Dollar (USD) could struggle to find demand and help GBP/USD keep its footing.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling buyers return in tandem with BoE’s hawkishness Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gradually recovered ground against the US Dollar (USD), lifting GBP/USD from three-month lows to ten-day highs near 1.3500.
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1650
EUR/USD remains slightly on the back foot on Friday, trading around 1.1650 amid some modest recovery in the US Dollar. Investors, in the meantime, are expected to shift their attention to next week's US inflation data release. Fed officials' comments and trade news also remain in focus.
GBP/USD turns positive near 1.3450
GBP/USD now flirts with the 1.3450 zone, managing to bounce off daily lows as the Greenback’s advance loses some traction. The British Pound remains bolstered by the BoE's hawkish cut at its meeting on Thursday. Cable remains en route to close the week with marked gains.
Gold keeps the rangebound mood near $3,400
Gold seems to have entered a consolidation phase around $3,400 per troy ounce, giving up some gains after previous highs over $3,410. The announcement that the United States would tax one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars is also supportive of the precious metal.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin uptrend takes a breather as Ethereum, XRP bulls tighten grip
The cryptocurrency market is relatively bullish on Friday, buoyed by renewed risk-on sentiment from both institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin surged toward the $118,000 round-figure resistance before retreating slightly to trade at around $116,525 at the time of writing.
Bank of England cuts rates in dramatic meeting
The Bank of England has cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 4% but the statement hints that officials think the easing cycle is nearing its end. Policymakers are visibly worried about a more persistent bout of inflation as the headline number is way higher than target.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
GBP/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the GBP/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta indicates divergence between United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy expectations and Donald Trump’s announced protectionist measures may strengthen the US Dollar (USD).
The Fed is signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates strong economic growth and rising inflationary pressures under the new Trump administration.
In contrast, the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish stance amid a fragile UK economy. Market expectations are pricing in up to three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair faces further downside after breaking below the 18-month rising wedge support at 1.2682, with the RSI in negative territory. Key support levels are 1.2037, 1.1802, and 1.1500, potentially leading to the 1.1000 mark. Recovery attempts face resistance at 1.2900, with bullish momentum only confirmed above 1.3490.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Bailey on BoE's profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).