NonFarm Payrolls

Breaking: Nonfarm Payrolls decrease by 92,000 in February vs. +59,000 expected

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) declined by 92,000 in February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday.

US jobs report post-release checklist – March 6

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation	Negative	US Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 92,000 in February, following the 126,000 increase recorded in January. This print came in below the market expectation for an increase of 59,000.
NFP Revisions	Negative	"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000," the BLS noted in its press release.
Unemployment rate	Negative	The US Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January declined to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December. This print came in worse than analysts’ estimate of 4.3%.
Labor Force Participation Rate	Neutral	The Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower to 62% in February from 62.1% in January.
Average Hourly Earnings	Neutral	Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, rose to 3.8% from 3.7% in January.

US jobs report pre-release checklist – March 6

Previous Nonfarm Payrolls	Positive	US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, following the 48,000 increase recorded in December and surpassing the market expectation of 70,000 by a wide margin.
Challenger Job Cuts	Positive	US-based employers’ planned layoffs declined sharply to 40.307K in February from 108.435K in January.
Initial Jobless Claims	Positive	The 4-week moving average of weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 215,750 in the week ending February 28, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Continuing Jobless Claims	Negative	The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 21 was 1,868,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week's revised level.
ISM Services PMI	Positive	The ISM Services PMI improved to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in January and the Employment Index rose to 51.8 from 50.3, highlighting an expansion in the service sector’s payrolls, at a strengthening pace.
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Neutral	The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI edged lower to 52.4 in February from 52.6 in January, while the Employment Index rose to 48.8 from 48.1 but remained in the contraction territory.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index	Neutral	The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved slightly to 56.6 in February from 56.4 in January. In this period, the Consumer Expectations Index declined to 56.6 from 57.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	Positive	The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in February from 89 (revised from 84.5) in January. The survey noted that “consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat.”
ADP Employment Report	Positive	Private-sector employment increased 63K in February, following the 11K growth reported in January. This print came in above the market expectation of 50K.
JOLTS Job Openings	Neutral	The US Bureau of Labor Statsitics postponed the release of the JOLTS Job Openings data.

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BIG PICTURE

NFP: The most important US economic indicator

NFP Definition

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the prior month. It is usually released by the US Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 ET.

The report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (the US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. This means that many economies peg their currency's value to that of the USD and many commodities such as Gold and Oil are priced in terms of the Dollar.

The NFP report tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies. It does so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes dramatically.

Why is NFP important?

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is arguably one of the biggest market movers in the Forex. The NFP figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.

A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.

The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

How does NFP affect the US Dollar?

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.

NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

How does NFP affect Gold?

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payroll figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.

Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.

Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

How to trade NFP?

Those who trade NFP releases base their advice on previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomic analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM reports, or other employment data published earlier such as ADP, JOLTS, or the Challenger report.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and the data can be overshadowed by the other components.

At times, when NFP comes out higher than forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.

The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but to a much lesser extent.