Forex Forecast Polls


The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.



Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: Winds of change blowing into the Federal Reserve

EUR/USD: Winds of change blowing into the Federal Reserve Premium

The EUR/USD pair fell towards 1.1417, its lowest since last March, as the US Dollar (USD) soared following the first Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. EUR/USD got to recover some ground on Friday, finishing the week, however, well below the 1.1500 mark.
British Pound rebounds as holiday-thinned trade slows USD bulls

British Pound rebounds as holiday-thinned trade slows USD bulls

The Pound Sterling recovers some ground after reaching a three-month low on Friday at 1.3163, sponsored by the Fed’s hawkish tilt, but edges up 0.18% amid thin trading conditions due to a holiday in the US. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3226, yet it is poised to end with weekly losses of 1.25%. Market sentiment remains fragile despite the recovery from the US-Iran deal.
Bitcoin: Recovery hopes fade after the Fed spoils the party

Bitcoin: Recovery hopes fade after the Fed spoils the party

Bitcoin (BTC) is set to end the week in the red, trading near the 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $62,300 on Friday. Institutional selling persists, capping BTC’s recovery as spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) point to a sixth consecutive week of outflows.
Week ahead – Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran deal turn focus to PCE inflation and PMIs

Week ahead – Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran deal turn focus to PCE inflation and PMIs

US PCE inflation data eyed after Warsh’s surprise hawkish debut. June PMIs in the spotlight too as US-Iran deal eases energy crunch. CPI data for Australia, Canada and Tokyo also on tap.

A metal hidden in your car exhaust: How Rhodium exploded way above Gold and Platinum

A metal hidden in your car exhaust: How Rhodium exploded way above Gold and Platinum Premium

For a brief moment in 2021, Rhodium became one of the hottest assets on the planet. The little-known precious metal surged to nearly $30,000 per ounce, climbing far above Gold and, at times, becoming more expensive than luxury watches, high-end sports cars and even some cryptocurrencies on a per-ounce basis.

Gold: Hawkish Fed leads to third consecutive weekly loss

Gold: Hawkish Fed leads to third consecutive weekly loss Premium

Gold (XAU/USD) opened with a bullish gap and registered strong gains in the first half of the week, but a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) spoiled the party. Mid-tier macroeconomic data releases from the United States (US) and changes in crude Oil prices could impact XAU/USD’s action in the near term, while the technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact.

WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?

The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.

  • Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
  • For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
  • Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
  • Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
  • Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics

The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.

 

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

WHY SHOULD I USE IT?

Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:

  • A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
  • No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
  • Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
  • A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
  • A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast GBP/USD Forecast USD/JPY Forecast AUD/USD Forecast
USD/CAD Forecast GBP/JPY Forecast NZD/USD Forecast EUR/JPY Forecast