Forex Forecast Polls


The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.



Weekly Forecast

US Dollar surges post-Fed, uncertainty remains

US Dollar surges post-Fed, uncertainty remains

The EUR/USD pair closed the week below 1.1500, not far above a fresh multi-week low of 1.1454. The US Dollar (USD) rallied following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, the sole market catalyst this past week.
BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.
Bitcoin: BTC shrugs off CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed

Bitcoin: BTC shrugs off CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has remained resilient this week, trading above $78,000 at the time of writing on Friday, heading toward a key resistance zone. Institutional demand shows early signs of weakness, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track for a second straight week of outflows, with over $420 million recorded through Thursday amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Week ahead – Hawkish Fed sets the tone for flash PMIs, SNB decides on policy

Week ahead – Hawkish Fed sets the tone for flash PMIs, SNB decides on policy

Fed’s hawkish hike adds fuel to Dollar’s engines. US, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs to test inflation and growth outlooks. SNB set to stand pat amid low inflation and still-strong Franc. Trump–Xi talks could impact Aussie, Kiwi and risk sentiment.

A metal hidden in your car exhaust: How Rhodium exploded way above Gold and Platinum

A metal hidden in your car exhaust: How Rhodium exploded way above Gold and Platinum

For a brief moment in 2021, Rhodium became one of the hottest assets on the planet. The little-known precious metal surged to nearly $30,000 per ounce, climbing far above Gold and, at times, becoming more expensive than luxury watches, high-end sports cars and even some cryptocurrencies on a per-ounce basis.

Gold: Bulls regain control; the next leg higher remains uncertain

Gold: Bulls regain control; the next leg higher remains uncertain

The precious metal started the week in quite a bearish mood, further extending the almost uninterrupted leg lower after August tops near the $4,700 mark per troy ounce. However, market sentiment made a U-turn in the second half of the week. It was not the Federal Reserve (Fed), reignited geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar (USD) or Treasury yields.

WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?

The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.

  • Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
  • For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
  • Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
  • Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
  • Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics

The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.

 

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

WHY SHOULD I USE IT?

Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:

  • A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
  • No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
  • Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
  • A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
  • A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast GBP/USD Forecast USD/JPY Forecast AUD/USD Forecast
USD/CAD Forecast GBP/JPY Forecast NZD/USD Forecast EUR/JPY Forecast