USD/JPY Forecast and News


USD/JPY treads water near 161.30

USD/JPY alternates gains with losses comfortably above the 161.00 mark on Friday. The Japanese Yen finds marginal support from hawkish BoJ commentary and signals from the April meeting Minutes that further rate hikes remain on the table, while usual FX intervention concerns and the Greenback’s lacklustre performance also add to Friday’s price action.

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USD/JPY Technical Overview

USD/JPY trades marginally lower at around 160.14 at press time, keeping a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.69. The pair remains underpinned by this rising EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart around 58 suggests firm but not overstretched upside momentum, hinting that buyers retain control for now.

On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-day EMA near 159.70, where a break would signal fading upside pressure and open the door to a deeper corrective pullback towards the May 20 low at 158.60. On the upside, the April 30 high at 160.73 will remain a key barrier for US Dollar bulls.


Fundamental Overview

In response to the currency's rapid decline, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated during a Thursday press conference that the government remains "ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time." Kihara emphasized that officials are closely monitoring market developments and comprehensively evaluating their economic impact.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair surrendered some gains as the US Dollar weakened due to fading risk aversion. This shift followed a BBC report confirming that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran.

However, the Greenback's downside may be limited, with potential to rebound against major peers as odds rise for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year. According to the Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections, half of the FOMC members still expect at least one rate hike in 2026. Despite recent economic disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran, a resilient US labor market and persistent underlying inflation continue to fuel monetary tightening pressures.



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Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY

The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan. Established under the Bank of Japan Act in 1882, it is a juridical entity and neither a government agency nor a private corporation. The BoJ sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

Policy Board: The Policy Board is the bank's highest decision-making body. It determines the guidelines for currency and monetary control, sets the basic principles for carrying out the bank's operations and oversees the performance of the bank's officers, excluding auditors and counselors.

History: The Bank of Japan was established under the Bank of Japan Act, promulgated in June 1882, and began operating as the nation's central bank on October 10, 1882. It was reorganized in 1942 under the Bank of Japan Act of 1942, which reflected the wartime context. The Act of 1942 was amended several times after World War II, and the establishment of the Policy Board as the bank's highest decision-making body occurred in June 1949. In June 1997, the Act of 1942 was revised completely under the principles of independence and transparency. The revised Act came into effect on April 1, 1998.


Kevin Warsh

Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

Kazuo Ueda

Kazuo Ueda was born in Makinohara, Japan, on September 20, 1951. He is the 32nd and current Governor of the BoJ. He graduated from the University of Tokyo with a Bachelor of Science and Mathematics and received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

He is a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and also worked as a professor at Kyoritsu Women's University. In February 2023, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida nominated Ueda as the governor of the BoJ. He is widely regarded as an expert on monetary policy but was considered a surprise appointment by analysts. He wasn’t even considered a dark-horse candidate, as the BoJ governor role has traditionally gone to long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrats or central bank officials. Ueda is the first academic economist to lead the BoJ in the post-World War II era.

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About USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.

Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.

The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.

The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.