Gold Forecast and News
Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400
Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The XAU/USD pair fails near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,368, which keeps the near-term bias tilted bearish despite staying above key Fibonacci support. The commodity hovers just above the 50.0% retracement at $4,320, which acts as a fragile floor after the recent pullback. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.52 sits near neutrality, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -19.60 remains in negative territory, hinting that downside pressure still prevails.
This, in turn, suggests that the Gold price could face initial resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,408, followed by the 100-day EMA at $4,368, with stronger barriers emerging at the 23.6% retracement at $4,516 and the $4,692 swing high. On the downside, immediate support aligns at the 50.0% retracement at $4,320, ahead of deeper Fibonacci levels at $4,232 and $4,107, with the $3,947 zone marking a more distant structural floor should selling extend.
Fundamental Overview
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the Greenback, which, in turn, might keep a lid on the non-yielding yellow metal.
The US central bank voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 at the end of the September meeting on Wednesday. Adding to this, the so-called dot plot revealed that Fed officials expect one more interest rate increase this year. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh underscored the importance of stabilizing consumer prices to grow the US economy and said that inflation was too high for too long. Moreover, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support crude oil prices, fueling worries about energy-driven inflation and underpinning prospects for further Fed tightening.
UOB flags renewed Dollar upside as Fed hiking cycle widens US rate gap
Analysts at UOB Group highlight that the Federal Reserve’s return to a renewed hiking cycle is reshaping the Dollar outlook. They note that, “as we now expect two further Fed rate hikes, the narrowing of US rate differentials relative to G-10 peers – which have been weighing on the DXY since late 2024 – is likely to reverse and underpin the DXY going forward.” Against this backdrop, UOB now sees its previously cautious stance on the Dollar as increasingly challenged. “Putting this together, we now see upside risks to our USD forecasts against both G-10 and Asian currencies,” the bank says.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a 54% chance of another Fed rate hike at the October meeting and the probability of a move in December stands at around 88%. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD, keeping a lid on the Gold price. In the latest development, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it struck a Togo-flagged tanker that attempted an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said that he was approaching a major decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran. This, in turn, favors USD bulls.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the precious metal's recovery from a six-week low, touched on Wednesday. Traders now look forward to Friday's second-tier US macro data – Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the Gold price later during the North American session. Traders will also take cues from further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis to grab short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD pair heading into the weekend.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Bulls regain control; the next leg higher remains uncertain
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD turns positive near 1.1500
EUR/USD now manages to regain some balance and bounces off lows amid modest gains, approaching at the same time the key 1.1500 barrier as the trading week draws to a close. The pair’s late rebound follows some loss of momentum in the US Dollar. Next week, the Trump-Xi Summit is expected to take centre stage alongside tariffs.
GBP/USD makes a U-turn; focus is now on 1.3400
GBP/USD rebounds from earlier lows and trades at shouting distance from the key 1.3400 barrier ahead of the closing bell on Wall Street on Friday. Cable’s resurgence comes in tandem with some loss of traction in the Greenback and a generalised improvement in the broader risk complex.
USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline
USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.
Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400
Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.
WTI rises to near $90.00 on escalating US-Iran conflict
West Texas Intermediate gains ground after registering losses in the previous trading day, hovering around $90.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices climb following a fresh escalation of military strikes between the United States and Iran, raising widespread fears of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
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Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.