How to Invest in Gold: Six Options to Consider
Gold Forecast and News
Gold keeps the rangebound mood near $3,400
Gold seems to have entered a consolidation phase around $3,400 per troy ounce, giving up some gains after previous highs over $3,410. The announcement that the United States would tax one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars is also supportive of the precious metal.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained strength beyond the $3,383-3,385 supply zone and positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the upside. However, the Asian session uptick falters near a resistance marked by the top boundary of the weekly uptrend. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $3,309-3,310 region before positioning for further gains. The momentum might then lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $3,422-3,423 area en route to the $3,434-3,435 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for a move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April.
On the flip side, weakness below the trading range resistance breakpoint, around the $3,385-3,383 region, could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned near the $3,353-3,350 area. The latter represents the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the $3,315 intermediate support en route to the $3,300 round figure and the $3,268 region, or a one-month low touched last week.
Fundamental Overview
Investors remain on edge amid US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff threats, which add a layer of uncertainty in the markets and might continue to underpin the Gold price. Furthermore, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September might keep a lid on any meaningful USD recovery. This should limit losses for the non-yielding yellow metal and warrants caution for bears.
Gold price bulls look to retain control amid tariff jitters, Fed rate cut bets
The US Dollar recovers slightly from a nearly two-week low touched the previous day. Moreover, Asian stocks rose for the fifth consecutive day and seem poised to register the best week since June, which, in turn, prompts some profit-taking around the Gold price on Friday.
US President Donald Trump imposed additional levies on Indian imports as "punishment" for buying oil from Russia, taking the total tariffs to 50%. Trump had also announced this week that tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will be imposed within the next week or so.
The developments revive concerns about the potential economic fallout from a global trade war. Adding to this, official data on Thursday showed that China's central bank extended Gold purchases for the ninth straight month in July. This could act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
Traders ramped up their bets that the US Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September after the US Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday. Adding to this, the US Jobless Claims rose for the second straight week and pointed to a deterioration in labor market conditions.
In fact, the US Labor Department reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up to a seasonally adjusted 226K during the week ended August 2. This marked the highest level since the week ending July 5.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders see over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at the next monetary policy meeting in September. Moreover, the Fed is expected to deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, Trump nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the rest of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's term until January 31, 2026. Furthermore, Trump has shortlisted four candidates as replacements for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
This might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the upside, which could lend support to the commodity. In the absence of any relevant macro data, speeches from influential FOMC members might provide some impetus to the XAU/USD pair.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Bullish momentum remains weak despite rallying Gold futures Premium
After fluctuating in a relatively tight range in the first half of the week, Gold (XAU/USD) gained traction and climbed to a two-week high above $3,400 before correcting lower toward the end of the week.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1650
EUR/USD remains slightly on the back foot on Friday, trading around 1.1650 amid some modest recovery in the US Dollar. Investors, in the meantime, are expected to shift their attention to next week's US inflation data release. Fed officials' comments and trade news also remain in focus.
GBP/USD turns positive near 1.3450
GBP/USD now flirts with the 1.3450 zone, managing to bounce off daily lows as the Greenback’s advance loses some traction. The British Pound remains bolstered by the BoE's hawkish cut at its meeting on Thursday. Cable remains en route to close the week with marked gains.
USD/JPY rises beyond 147.50 amid a broadly firmer US Dollar
The US Dollar is reverting to the previous two days' losses as investors welcomed reports suggesting that Fed Governor Waller is emerging as a top candidate for the replacement of Chair Powell in May, while a moderate risk appetite is weighing on the safe-haven Yen. Waller is a dove and was appointed by Trump during his first term.
Gold keeps the rangebound mood near $3,400
Gold seems to have entered a consolidation phase around $3,400 per troy ounce, giving up some gains after previous highs over $3,410. The announcement that the United States would tax one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars is also supportive of the precious metal.
WTI tumbles to below $63.00 as tariff concerns mount
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.90 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI trades in negative territory for the seventh consecutive day and heads for the biggest weekly loss since June.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 XAU/USD forecast!
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
