Gold Forecast and News
Gold recovers above $4,950 as US-Iran tensions boost safe-haven demand
Gold price trades in positive territory near $4,985 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the rebound after a historic and volatile sell-off last week. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it recovered above all its moving averages, currently struggling around a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the latter at $4,922. The 100-period and 200-period SMAs head modestly higher at $4,869 and $4,649, respectively. At the same time, the Momentum indicator resumed its advance but remains right below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 50, neutral, not enough to confirm another leg north.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD seems poised to extend its current recovery. The pair surged above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA climbing above the longer ones and currently at $4,802.57. At the same time, the technical indicators have bounced from around their midlines, with the RSI indicator currently at 56 and aiming north. A sustained advance pushing Gold through $5,000 is likely to anticipate a steeper upside extension.
Fundamental Overview
Spot Gold managed to recover ground after falling sharply for two days in a row, trading well above the $4,900 mark in the American session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) lost its recent momentum, although losses against other currencies are limited.
Market participants paused their early optimism amid fresh waves of uncertainty. On the one hand, the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Monday that it will not be publishing the usual employment reports given the US government's partial shutdown. That means the BLS skipped publishing the JOLTS Job Openings report and will not release weekly employment figures or the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
On the other hand, trade tensions returned. The European Union signed a trade deal with India last week, prompting US President Donald Trump to announce a trade agreement with the Asian country. The new deal includes reduced tariffs from 25% to 18%, and India's oil purchases to both the US and Venezuela, the latter in the hands of Trump.
Finally, market participants seem to be taking back bets that the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be utterly hawkish, as Trump demands. Indeed, Warsh has advocated for lower rates in the last few months, arguing that tech progress will boost growth without triggering worrisome inflation.
Ultimately, concerns remain the same, resulting in increased haven demand.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Correction should be temporary Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) kept winning this week, and on Thursday it briefly reached new all-time highs just beyond the $5,600 mark per troy ounce. Since then, the yellow metal has entered a correction phase, as some traders took profits at the right time and the US Dollar (USD) rose sharply.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.1800
EUR/USD keeps the fresh bid bias around the 1.1800 region as the NA session draws to a close on Tuesday. The pair’s decent bounce comes on the back of fresh downside pressure on the US Dollar as investors continue to fade the so-called “Warsh trade”. Next of note on the euro docket will be the preliminary inflation data in the euro zone on Wednesday.
GBP/USD consolidates ahead of Bank of England rate decision
The Pound Sterling traded in a narrow range against the US Dollar on Tuesday, edging modestly higher to near 1.3700 as markets adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of England's first policy decision of 2026. GBP/USD opened the session at 1.3665 and touched an intraday high near 1.3707, with the pair consolidating below the multi-year high of 1.3869 posted in late January.
USD/JPY extends winning streak as US Dollar rebounds, US data awaited
USD/JPY extends the advance to near 156.00 on USD’s continued outperformance. The US Dollar gains on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed’s new Chairman and upbeat ISM PMI data. BoJ officials continue to support tightening monetary conditions.
Gold recovers above $4,950 as US-Iran tensions boost safe-haven demand
Gold price trades in positive territory near $4,985 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the rebound after a historic and volatile sell-off last week. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.
WTI Price Forecast: Bullish 21-day and 50-day SMA crossover keeps upside bias intact
WTI reboundswith intraday buying lifting price back above the 200-day SMA near $61.95. The daily chart remains constructive, with a bullish crossover between the 21-day and 50-day SMAs. The ADX at 32.81 continues to point to a firm and strengthening trend.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.