ECB (European Central Bank)
ECB's Makhlouf: Concerned about higher-for-longer energy price scenario
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said on Friday that without a clear timeline for the end of the conflict in the Middle East, he is concerned about a "higher-for-longer" energy price scenario, per Reuters.
ECB’s Nagel: The baseline scenario already entails a more restrictive monetary policy
ECB Governing Council member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said during the European trading session on Friday that the baseline scenario already entails a more restrictive monetary policy.
ECB’s Müller: Increasingly likely ECB needs to raise rates
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Madis Müller said on Friday that it is increasingly likely the ECB will need to raise interest rates.
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EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1750 as risk flows dominate
EUR/USD stays firm above 1.1760 in European trading hours on Wednesday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment, which dents the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal. Confidence returned on headlines indicating the United States and Iran are moving towards a deal to end the conflict. The deal would involve both sides lifting restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
USD/JPY off lows, still down 1% on likely 'Yentervention'
USD/JPY is off ten-week lows but remains heavy near 156.00 in early Europe on Wednesday. Markets speculate another round of FX intervention by Japan's authorities behind the latest leg up in the Japanese Yen, keeping the bearish pressure intact on the currency pair.
Gold continues scaling higher; retakes $4,700 amid peace deal hopes
Gold extends its intraday ascent and climbs to an over one-week high, re-attempting $4,700 in Wednesday's European session. The US Dollar weakens across the board amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, helping the commodity to build on its recovery from a more than one-month trough, around the $4,500 mark set on Monday.
ADP Employment Report set to show US job market gained momentum in April
Developments in the Middle East conflict are likely to remain at the forefront this week, but investors will also keep an eye on a string of US labour market figures.
UK 30-year gilts hit 5.78%, the highest since 1998: what is being priced in? Premium
UK 30-year gilts traded as high as 5.78% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1998, while 10-year yields topped 5.10% with markets pricing in nearly three-quarter-point Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes this year.
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what is the ECB?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB's mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro's (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank's work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
who is ECB's President?
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on How to trade the ECB interest-rate decision
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Prior to the rate decision:
- Many traders buy the rumors and square their positions shortly after the decision is made. For instance, if the market believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates, traders buy the Euro (EUR) and close the position shortly after the announcement. On the other hand, if the expectation is a rate cut, traders will short the Euro and square the position after the announcement.
After the rate decision:
- If the market's expectations differ from the actual rate decision, there can be some excellent trading opportunities.
- If the market expects a rate hike but the European Central Bank ends up cutting rates, a short-term (1-2 hours) selling the Euro could be successful.
- If the market expects a rate cut but the ECB raises rates, a short-term long position on the Euro (1-2 hours) may be advantageous.
More generally, relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
Hike, cut or keep interest rates unchanged
The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision on interest rates always has an effect on the Euro (EUR).
When interest rates increase, the European Central Bank is selling government securities to large financial firms. In turn, the financial organizations are paying in euros for these securities. This effectively decreases the amount of currency circulating in the economy. A decreasing supply leads to higher demand and therefore causes the value of the Euro to appreciate.
When the interest rates decrease, the European Central Bank floods the market with euros. This is done by purchasing government securities from financial organizations. In return for the securities, these banks and financial deals are paid in euros, therefore increasing the supply of euros in the economy. As supply increases, the value of the Euro depreciates.
the world interest rates table
The World Interest Rates Table reflects the current interest rates of the main countries around the world, set by their respective Central Banks. Rates typically reflect the health of individual economies, as in a perfect scenario, Central Banks tend to rise rates when the economy is growing and therefore instigate inflation.
some concepts you need to know
In practical terms, QE means that central banks create money out of nothing to buy securities, such as government bonds. This new money swells the size of bank reserves by the quantity of assets purchased and that's why this programme is called Quantitative Easings. The money supply is intended to flood financial institutions with capital in an effort to stimulate lending and increase liquidity.
Much of the governments' debt is held by banks in the Eurozone and the ECB wants them to give more credits. If the European Central Bank buys government bonds, their prices rise and profitability drop even more. This is a liquidity-providing operation that weakens the value of the euro. This depreciation makes European exports cheaper and competitive, and ultimately, helps in recovering. In addition, as a result of the stimulus to internal and external consumption, the ECB combats the risk of deflation, a widespread and prolonged drop in prices, as well as the high unemployment.